A'ja Wilson

Las Vegas Aces · #22 · 0 games logged

Model vs book today

Current lines the model prices for this player — including ones where the book's price is better than the model's number.

Model probability vs book probability
Player	Line	Model	Book	Edge
A'ja Wilson	Under 28.5 PTSIND @ LV	71.6%	53.5%−115	+18.1%
A'ja Wilson	Under 10.5 REBIND @ LV	69.3%	53.5%−115	+15.8%

A'ja Wilson
Under 28.5 PTSIND @ LV
+18.1%
Model
71.6%
Book
53.5%−115
A'ja Wilson
Under 10.5 REBIND @ LV
+15.8%
Model
69.3%
Book
53.5%−115

Model % vs the break-even % of the Hard Rock price. How to read thisFull model board in the app →

Projection vs line history

Model lines frozen before each game and graded after it — misses included.

Projection vs line history
Line	Date	Projection	Model	Book	Result
Under 11.5 REB	Sep 29 · projected 5.2	5.2	91.2%	59.2%	won(9)
Under 31.5 PTS	Sep 29 · projected 21.2	21.2	92.0%	66.1%	won(22)
Under 30.5 PTS	Sep 27 · projected 19.7	19.7	91.0%	61.5%	lost(32)
Under 10.5 REB	Sep 27 · projected 5.4	5.4	86.8%	58.3%	lost(11)
Under 9.5 REB	Sep 20 · projected 4.7	4.7	84.2%	57.4%	won(8)
Under 3.5 assists	Sep 20 · projected 2.4	2.4	81.7%	59.2%	lost(4)
Under 26.5 PTS	Sep 20 · projected 17.4	17.4	90.8%	53.5%	lost(27)
Under 3.5 assists	Sep 17 · projected 2.3	2.3	81.1%	61.5%	lost(4)
Under 9.5 REB	Sep 17 · projected 4.8	4.8	84.5%	55.6%	won(7)
Under 1.5 threePointersMade	Sep 17 · projected 0.7	0.7	81.6%	72.2%	won(1)
Under 25.5 PTS	Sep 17 · projected 21.7	21.7	81.5%	53.5%	lost(27)
Under 9.5 REB	Aug 20 · projected 4.9	4.9	83.6%	56.5%	won(3)
Under 25.5 PTS	Aug 20 · projected 17.7	17.7	87.4%	52.4%	won(20)
Under 10.5 REB	Aug 6 · projected 5.0	5.0	86.6%	59.2%	lost(11)
Under 27.5 PTS	Aug 6 · projected 21.1	21.1	84.5%	56.5%	won(26)
Under 3.5 assists	Aug 6 · projected 2.5	2.5	79.9%	52.4%	won(3)
Under 2.5 assists	May 28 · projected 0.9	0.9	59.5%	45.5%	lost(3)
Under 24.5 PTS	May 28 · projected 20.3	20.3	78.3%	53.5%	won(21)
Under 8.5 REB	May 28 · projected 4.4	4.4	90.8%	53.5%	won(7)
Under 22.5 PTS	May 15 · projected 16.7	16.7	84.2%	51.2%	lost(23)

Under 11.5 REB
Sep 29 · projected 5.2
won(9)
Model
91.2%
Book
59.2%
Under 31.5 PTS
Sep 29 · projected 21.2
won(22)
Model
92.0%
Book
66.1%
Under 30.5 PTS
Sep 27 · projected 19.7
lost(32)
Model
91.0%
Book
61.5%
Under 10.5 REB
Sep 27 · projected 5.4
lost(11)
Model
86.8%
Book
58.3%
Under 9.5 REB
Sep 20 · projected 4.7
won(8)
Model
84.2%
Book
57.4%
Under 3.5 assists
Sep 20 · projected 2.4
lost(4)
Model
81.7%
Book
59.2%
Under 26.5 PTS
Sep 20 · projected 17.4
lost(27)
Model
90.8%
Book
53.5%
Under 3.5 assists
Sep 17 · projected 2.3
lost(4)
Model
81.1%
Book
61.5%
Under 9.5 REB
Sep 17 · projected 4.8
won(7)
Model
84.5%
Book
55.6%
Under 1.5 threePointersMade
Sep 17 · projected 0.7
won(1)
Model
81.6%
Book
72.2%
Under 25.5 PTS
Sep 17 · projected 21.7
lost(27)
Model
81.5%
Book
53.5%
Under 9.5 REB
Aug 20 · projected 4.9
won(3)
Model
83.6%
Book
56.5%
Under 25.5 PTS
Aug 20 · projected 17.7
won(20)
Model
87.4%
Book
52.4%
Under 10.5 REB
Aug 6 · projected 5.0
lost(11)
Model
86.6%
Book
59.2%
Under 27.5 PTS
Aug 6 · projected 21.1
won(26)
Model
84.5%
Book
56.5%
Under 3.5 assists
Aug 6 · projected 2.5
won(3)
Model
79.9%
Book
52.4%
Under 2.5 assists
May 28 · projected 0.9
lost(3)
Model
59.5%
Book
45.5%
Under 24.5 PTS
May 28 · projected 20.3
won(21)
Model
78.3%
Book
53.5%
Under 8.5 REB
May 28 · projected 4.4
won(7)
Model
90.8%
Book
53.5%
Under 22.5 PTS
May 15 · projected 16.7
lost(23)
Model
84.2%
Book
51.2%

Fewer than 5 logged games so far — this page fills in as the season goes on.

Frequently asked questions

What does the EdgeGoat model say about A'ja Wilson today?

The strongest current line: A'ja Wilson under 28.5 pts (−115): model 71.6% vs book 53.5%, an edge of +18.1%.

How has the model done on A'ja Wilson's props?

Across the last 20 graded model lines on A'ja Wilson, 11 won and 9 lost.

Every A'ja Wilson line, priced

Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.

Open the model — free How the model works

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).