EdgeGoatPittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland BrownsPreview · NFL · Thursday, October 1, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET
Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE ML | 41.6% | 44.4%+125 | −2.9% |
| PIT ML | 58.4% | 59.2%−145 | −0.7% |
| CLE +2.5 | 47.4% | 50.0%+100 | −2.6% |
| PIT -2.5 | 52.6% | 54.5%−120 | −2.0% |
| Over 38 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
| Under 38 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
- CLE ML−2.9%
- Model
- 41.6%
- Book
- 44.4%+125
- PIT ML−0.7%
- Model
- 58.4%
- Book
- 59.2%−145
- CLE +2.5−2.6%
- Model
- 47.4%
- Book
- 50.0%+100
- PIT -2.5−2.0%
- Model
- 52.6%
- Book
- 54.5%−120
- Over 38−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 38−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 10 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aaron Rodgers | Under 3.5 Rush Yds | 73.8% | 63.6%−175 | +10.1% |
 Quinshon Judkins | Under 59.5 Rush Yds | 67.8% | 58.3%−140 | +9.5% |
| Quinshon Judkins | Under 16.5 Carries | 60.6% | 52.4%−110 | +8.2% |
- Under 3.5 Rush Yds+10.1%
- Model
- 73.8%
- Book
- 63.6%−175
- Under 59.5 Rush Yds+9.5%
- Model
- 67.8%
- Book
- 58.3%−140
- Under 16.5 Carries+8.2%
- Model
- 60.6%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns start?
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (NFL) starts at 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, October 1, 2026 at Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns?
The model projects about 38 combined points.
Who does the model favor in Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns?
The model favors Pittsburgh Steelers by about 2.5 points.
How many model edges are there for Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns?
The model currently finds 10 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Aaron Rodgers under 3.5 rush yds (−175): model 73.8% vs book 63.6%, an edge of +10.1%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).