EdgeGoatGreen Bay Packers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersPreview · NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB ML | 36.7% | 37.7%+165 | −1.1% |
| GB ML | 63.3% | 66.1%−195 | −2.8% |
| TB +3.5 | 50.7% | 52.4%−110 | −1.7% |
| GB -3.5 | 49.3% | 52.4%−110 | −3.0% |
| Over 39.5 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
| Under 39.5 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
- TB ML−1.1%
- Model
- 36.7%
- Book
- 37.7%+165
- GB ML−2.8%
- Model
- 63.3%
- Book
- 66.1%−195
- TB +3.5−1.7%
- Model
- 50.7%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- GB -3.5−3.0%
- Model
- 49.3%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Over 39.5−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 39.5−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 3 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jordan Love | Under 7.5 Rush Yds | 71.7% | 64.9%−185 | +6.8% |
 Jalon Daniels | Over 174.5 Pass Yds | 57.3% | 51.2%−105 | +6.1% |
| Cade Otton | Over 29.5 Rec Yds | 48.0% | 46.5%+115 | +1.4% |
- Under 7.5 Rush Yds+6.8%
- Model
- 71.7%
- Book
- 64.9%−185
- Over 174.5 Pass Yds+6.1%
- Model
- 57.3%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
- Over 29.5 Rec Yds+1.4%
- Model
- 48.0%
- Book
- 46.5%+115
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers start?
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL) starts at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
The model projects about 39.5 combined points.
Who does the model favor in Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
The model favors Green Bay Packers by about 4 points.
How many model edges are there for Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
The model currently finds 3 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Jordan Love under 7.5 rush yds (−185): model 71.7% vs book 64.9%, an edge of +6.8%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).