NFL slate · Sunday, October 4, 2026

Name: NFL model board, 2026-10-04
Creator: EdgeGoat
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

14 games · 80 priced model edges

← Oct 1·Oct 5 →

Games

9:30 AM ET8 model edges

Indianapolis Colts

Washington Commanders

1:00 PM ETProjected

Arizona Cardinals

New York Giants

1:00 PM ET9 model edges

Dallas Cowboys

Houston Texans

1:00 PM ET3 model edges

Green Bay Packers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1:00 PM ET4 model edges

Jacksonville Jaguars

Cincinnati Bengals

1:00 PM ET14 model edges

Los Angeles Rams

Philadelphia Eagles

1:00 PM ET12 model edges

1:00 PM ET7 model edges

4:25 PM ET12 model edges

Denver Broncos

San Francisco 49ers

4:25 PM ET2 model edges

Kansas City Chiefs

Las Vegas Raiders

4:25 PM ET3 model edges

Los Angeles Chargers

Seattle Seahawks

8:20 PM ET6 model edges

Detroit Lions

Carolina Panthers

Model board highlights

Model probability vs book probability
Player	Line	Model	Book	Edge
Saquon Barkley	Under 67.5 Rush YdsLAR @ PHI	65.2%	41.7%+140	+23.6%
Jalen Hurts	Under 20.5 Rush YdsLAR @ PHI	67.8%	44.4%+125	+23.4%
Makai Lemon	Under 2.5 RecLAR @ PHI	61.3%	42.6%+135	+18.7%
Cam Ward	Under 9.5 Rush YdsTEN @ BAL	70.4%	52.4%−110	+18.1%
Daniel Jones	Under 11.5 Rush YdsIND @ WSH	70.5%	53.5%−115	+17.0%
Davante Adams	Under 4.5 RecLAR @ PHI	61.4%	44.4%+125	+17.0%

Saquon Barkley
Under 67.5 Rush YdsLAR @ PHI
+23.6%
Model
65.2%
Book
41.7%+140
Jalen Hurts
Under 20.5 Rush YdsLAR @ PHI
+23.4%
Model
67.8%
Book
44.4%+125
Makai Lemon
Under 2.5 RecLAR @ PHI
+18.7%
Model
61.3%
Book
42.6%+135
Cam Ward
Under 9.5 Rush YdsTEN @ BAL
+18.1%
Model
70.4%
Book
52.4%−110
Daniel Jones
Under 11.5 Rush YdsIND @ WSH
+17.0%
Model
70.5%
Book
53.5%−115
Davante Adams
Under 4.5 RecLAR @ PHI
+17.0%
Model
61.4%
Book
44.4%+125

Model % vs the break-even % of the Hard Rock price. How to read thisFull model board in the app →

The whole NFL board for Oct 4

Every line the model prices on this slate, sortable by edge and expected value, with correlation-aware parlay building.

Open the model — free How the model works

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).