EdgeGoatJacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati BengalsPreview · NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN ML | 58.4% | 58.3%−140 | +0.1% |
| JAX ML | 41.6% | 45.5%+120 | −3.9% |
| CIN -2.5 | 52.6% | 53.5%−115 | −0.9% |
| JAX +2.5 | 47.4% | 51.2%−105 | −3.8% |
| Over 51 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
| Under 51 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
- CIN ML+0.1%
- Model
- 58.4%
- Book
- 58.3%−140
- JAX ML−3.9%
- Model
- 41.6%
- Book
- 45.5%+120
- CIN -2.5−0.9%
- Model
- 52.6%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- JAX +2.5−3.8%
- Model
- 47.4%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
- Over 51−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 51−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 4 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Trevor Lawrence | Under 265.5 Pass Yds | 62.4% | 54.5%−120 | +7.8% |
 Chase Brown | Under 69.5 Rush Yds | 67.0% | 59.2%−145 | +7.8% |
| Parker Washington | Under 5.5 Rec | 60.8% | 57.4%−135 | +3.3% |
- Under 265.5 Pass Yds+7.8%
- Model
- 62.4%
- Book
- 54.5%−120
- Under 69.5 Rush Yds+7.8%
- Model
- 67.0%
- Book
- 59.2%−145
- Under 5.5 Rec+3.3%
- Model
- 60.8%
- Book
- 57.4%−135
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals start?
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) starts at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals?
The model projects about 51 combined points.
Who does the model favor in Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals?
The model favors Cincinnati Bengals by about 2.5 points.
How many model edges are there for Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals?
The model currently finds 4 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Trevor Lawrence under 265.5 pass yds (−120): model 62.4% vs book 54.5%, an edge of +7.8%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).