EdgeGoatIndianapolis Colts at Washington CommandersPreview · NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 9:30 AM ET
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSH ML | 38.3% | 37.7%+165 | +0.5% |
| IND ML | 61.7% | 66.1%−195 | −4.4% |
| WSH +3.5 | 52.3% | 52.4%−110 | −0.1% |
| IND -3.5 | 47.7% | 52.4%−110 | −4.7% |
| Over 47 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
| Under 47 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
- WSH ML+0.5%
- Model
- 38.3%
- Book
- 37.7%+165
- IND ML−4.4%
- Model
- 61.7%
- Book
- 66.1%−195
- WSH +3.5−0.1%
- Model
- 52.3%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- IND -3.5−4.7%
- Model
- 47.7%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Over 47−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 47−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 8 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Daniel Jones | Under 11.5 Rush Yds | 70.5% | 53.5%−115 | +17.0% |
| Jonathan Taylor | Under 114.5 Rush+Rec Yds | 68.5% | 53.5%−115 | +15.0% |
| Jonathan Taylor | Under 90.5 Rush Yds | 63.8% | 53.5%−115 | +10.3% |
- Under 11.5 Rush Yds+17.0%
- Model
- 70.5%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Under 114.5 Rush+Rec Yds+15.0%
- Model
- 68.5%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Under 90.5 Rush Yds+10.3%
- Model
- 63.8%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders start?
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders (NFL) starts at 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders?
The model projects about 47 combined points.
Who does the model favor in Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders?
The model favors Indianapolis Colts by about 3.5 points.
How many model edges are there for Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders?
The model currently finds 8 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Daniel Jones under 11.5 rush yds (−115): model 70.5% vs book 53.5%, an edge of +17.0%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).