EdgeGoatDenver Broncos at San Francisco 49ersPreview · NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF ML | 58.4% | 59.2%−145 | −0.7% |
| DEN ML | 41.6% | 45.5%+120 | −3.9% |
| SF -2.5 | 52.6% | 54.5%−120 | −2.0% |
| DEN +2.5 | 47.4% | 50.0%+100 | −2.6% |
| Over 48 | 51.5% | 52.4%−110 | −0.9% |
| Under 48 | 48.5% | 52.4%−110 | −3.9% |
- SF ML−0.7%
- Model
- 58.4%
- Book
- 59.2%−145
- DEN ML−3.9%
- Model
- 41.6%
- Book
- 45.5%+120
- SF -2.5−2.0%
- Model
- 52.6%
- Book
- 54.5%−120
- DEN +2.5−2.6%
- Model
- 47.4%
- Book
- 50.0%+100
- Over 48−0.9%
- Model
- 51.5%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 48−3.9%
- Model
- 48.5%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 8 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Christian McCaffrey | Under 109.5 Rush+Rec Yds | 68.4% | 53.5%−115 | +14.9% |
 J.K. Dobbins | Under 60.5 Rush Yds | 65.2% | 53.5%−115 | +11.7% |
| Christian McCaffrey | Under 15.5 Carries | 60.4% | 51.2%−105 | +9.2% |
- Under 109.5 Rush+Rec Yds+14.9%
- Model
- 68.4%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Under 60.5 Rush Yds+11.7%
- Model
- 65.2%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Under 15.5 Carries+9.2%
- Model
- 60.4%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers start?
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (NFL) starts at 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers?
The model projects about 48.5 combined points.
Who does the model favor in Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers?
The model favors San Francisco 49ers by about 2.5 points.
How many model edges are there for Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers?
The model currently finds 8 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Christian McCaffrey under 109.5 rush+rec yds (−115): model 68.4% vs book 53.5%, an edge of +14.9%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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