EdgeGoatDetroit Lions at Carolina PanthersPreview · NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR ML | 38.3% | 38.5%+160 | −0.2% |
| DET ML | 61.7% | 65.5%−190 | −3.8% |
| CAR +3.5 | 52.3% | 52.4%−110 | −0.1% |
| DET -3.5 | 47.7% | 52.4%−110 | −4.7% |
| Over 50.5 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
| Under 50.5 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
- CAR ML−0.2%
- Model
- 38.3%
- Book
- 38.5%+160
- DET ML−3.8%
- Model
- 61.7%
- Book
- 65.5%−190
- CAR +3.5−0.1%
- Model
- 52.3%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- DET -3.5−4.7%
- Model
- 47.7%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Over 50.5−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 50.5−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 6 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chuba Hubbard | Under 89.5 Rush+Rec Yds | 69.8% | 53.5%−115 | +16.3% |
| Chuba Hubbard | Under 66.5 Rush Yds | 66.0% | 53.5%−115 | +12.5% |
| Bryce Young | Under 13.5 Rush Yds | 68.6% | 56.5%−130 | +12.1% |
- Under 89.5 Rush+Rec Yds+16.3%
- Model
- 69.8%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Under 66.5 Rush Yds+12.5%
- Model
- 66.0%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Under 13.5 Rush Yds+12.1%
- Model
- 68.6%
- Book
- 56.5%−130
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers start?
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (NFL) starts at 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers?
The model projects about 50.5 combined points.
Who does the model favor in Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers?
The model favors Detroit Lions by about 3.5 points.
How many model edges are there for Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers?
The model currently finds 6 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Chuba Hubbard under 89.5 rush+rec yds (−115): model 69.8% vs book 53.5%, an edge of +16.3%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
Build around this game in the app
See every line the model prices for this game, build correlation-aware parlays, and track each leg live.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).