EdgeGoatTennessee Titans at Baltimore RavensPreview · NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL ML | 83.3% | 88.2%−750 | −5.0% |
| TEN ML | 16.7% | 16.7%+500 | +0.1% |
| BAL -11.5 | 48.9% | 52.4%−110 | −3.5% |
| TEN +11.5 | 51.1% | 52.4%−110 | −1.3% |
| Over 43.5 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
| Under 43.5 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
- BAL ML−5.0%
- Model
- 83.3%
- Book
- 88.2%−750
- TEN ML+0.1%
- Model
- 16.7%
- Book
- 16.7%+500
- BAL -11.5−3.5%
- Model
- 48.9%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- TEN +11.5−1.3%
- Model
- 51.1%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Over 43.5−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 43.5−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 7 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cam Ward | Under 9.5 Rush Yds | 71.6% | 52.4%−110 | +19.2% |
 Lamar Jackson | Under 224.5 Pass Yds | 63.9% | 53.5%−115 | +10.5% |
| Carnell Tate | Under 4.5 Rec | 60.8% | 52.4%−110 | +8.4% |
- Under 9.5 Rush Yds+19.2%
- Model
- 71.6%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 224.5 Pass Yds+10.5%
- Model
- 63.9%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Under 4.5 Rec+8.4%
- Model
- 60.8%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens start?
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (NFL) starts at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens?
The model projects about 43.5 combined points.
Who does the model favor in Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens?
The model favors Baltimore Ravens by about 11.5 points.
How many model edges are there for Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens?
The model currently finds 7 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Cam Ward under 9.5 rush yds (−110): model 71.6% vs book 52.4%, an edge of +19.2%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).