EdgeGoatLos Angeles Rams at Philadelphia EaglesPreview · NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI ML | 39.9% | 41.7%+140 | −1.8% |
| LAR ML | 60.1% | 62.3%−165 | −2.2% |
| PHI +3 | 49.9% | 51.2%−105 | −1.3% |
| LAR -3 | 50.1% | 53.5%−115 | −3.4% |
| Over 43.5 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
| Under 43.5 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
- PHI ML−1.8%
- Model
- 39.9%
- Book
- 41.7%+140
- LAR ML−2.2%
- Model
- 60.1%
- Book
- 62.3%−165
- PHI +3−1.3%
- Model
- 49.9%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
- LAR -3−3.4%
- Model
- 50.1%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Over 43.5−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 43.5−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 14 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Saquon Barkley | Under 67.5 Rush Yds | 65.2% | 41.7%+140 | +23.6% |
| Jalen Hurts | Under 20.5 Rush Yds | 67.8% | 44.4%+125 | +23.4% |
| Makai Lemon | Under 2.5 Rec | 61.3% | 42.6%+135 | +18.7% |
- Under 67.5 Rush Yds+23.6%
- Model
- 65.2%
- Book
- 41.7%+140
- Under 20.5 Rush Yds+23.4%
- Model
- 67.8%
- Book
- 44.4%+125
- Under 2.5 Rec+18.7%
- Model
- 61.3%
- Book
- 42.6%+135
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles start?
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (NFL) starts at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles?
The model projects about 43.5 combined points.
Who does the model favor in Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles?
The model favors Los Angeles Rams by about 3 points.
How many model edges are there for Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles?
The model currently finds 14 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Saquon Barkley under 67.5 rush yds (+140): model 65.2% vs book 41.7%, an edge of +23.6%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).