EdgeGoatNew York Jets at Chicago BearsPreview · NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
Soldier Field, Chicago
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
39.9%40.8%−0.9%
Model39.9%Book+14540.8%Edge−0.9%
60.1%63.6%−3.5%
Model60.1%Book−17563.6%Edge−3.5%
SpreadModel: CHI by 3
NYJ +3
Model49.9%Book50.0%+100−0.1%
TotalModel: 43 points
Under 43
Model50.0%Book52.4%−110−2.4%
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI ML | 60.1% | 63.6%−175 | −3.5% |
| NYJ ML | 39.9% | 40.8%+145 | −0.9% |
| CHI -3 | 50.1% | 54.5%−120 | −4.4% |
| NYJ +3 | 49.9% | 50.0%+100 | −0.1% |
| Over 43 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
| Under 43 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
- CHI ML−3.5%
- Model
- 60.1%
- Book
- 63.6%−175
- NYJ ML−0.9%
- Model
- 39.9%
- Book
- 40.8%+145
- CHI -3−4.4%
- Model
- 50.1%
- Book
- 54.5%−120
- NYJ +3−0.1%
- Model
- 49.9%
- Book
- 50.0%+100
- Over 43−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 43−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Frequently asked questions
When does New York Jets at Chicago Bears start?
New York Jets at Chicago Bears (NFL) starts at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at Soldier Field, Chicago.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for New York Jets at Chicago Bears?
The model projects about 43 combined points.
Who does the model favor in New York Jets at Chicago Bears?
The model favors Chicago Bears by about 3 points.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).