EdgeGoatMiami Dolphins at Minnesota VikingsPreview · NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 4:05 PM ET
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
17.8%18.2%−0.4%
Model17.8%Book+45018.2%Edge−0.4%
82.2%86.7%−4.4%
Model82.2%Book−65086.7%Edge−4.4%
SpreadModel: MIN by 11
MIA +11.5
Model52.8%Book52.4%−110+0.5%
TotalModel: 38.5 points
Under 39
Model51.4%Book52.4%−110−1.0%
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN ML | 82.2% | 86.7%−650 | −4.4% |
| MIA ML | 17.8% | 18.2%+450 | −0.4% |
| MIN -11.5 | 47.2% | 52.4%−110 | −5.2% |
| MIA +11.5 | 52.8% | 52.4%−110 | +0.5% |
| Over 39 | 48.6% | 52.4%−110 | −3.8% |
| Under 39 | 51.4% | 52.4%−110 | −1.0% |
- MIN ML−4.4%
- Model
- 82.2%
- Book
- 86.7%−650
- MIA ML−0.4%
- Model
- 17.8%
- Book
- 18.2%+450
- MIN -11.5−5.2%
- Model
- 47.2%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- MIA +11.5+0.5%
- Model
- 52.8%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Over 39−3.8%
- Model
- 48.6%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 39−1.0%
- Model
- 51.4%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Frequently asked questions
When does Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings start?
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (NFL) starts at 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings?
The model projects about 38.5 combined points.
Who does the model favor in Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings?
The model favors Minnesota Vikings by about 11 points.
Build around this game in the app
See every line the model prices for this game, build correlation-aware parlays, and track each leg live.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).