EdgeGoatDallas Cowboys at Houston TexansPreview · NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
Reliant Stadium, Houston
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU ML | 58.4% | 58.3%−140 | +0.1% |
| DAL ML | 41.6% | 45.5%+120 | −3.9% |
| HOU -2.5 | 52.6% | 53.5%−115 | −0.9% |
| DAL +2.5 | 47.4% | 51.2%−105 | −3.8% |
| Over 47.5 | 50.0% | 53.5%−115 | −3.5% |
| Under 47.5 | 50.0% | 51.2%−105 | −1.2% |
- HOU ML+0.1%
- Model
- 58.4%
- Book
- 58.3%−140
- DAL ML−3.9%
- Model
- 41.6%
- Book
- 45.5%+120
- HOU -2.5−0.9%
- Model
- 52.6%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- DAL +2.5−3.8%
- Model
- 47.4%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
- Over 47.5−3.5%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Under 47.5−1.2%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 9 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dak Prescott | Under 24.5 Comp | 68.6% | 53.5%−115 | +15.1% |
| Dak Prescott | Under 273.5 Pass Yds | 61.8% | 53.5%−115 | +8.3% |
| Dak Prescott | Over 13.5 Rush Yds | 51.7% | 43.5%+130 | +8.2% |
- Under 24.5 Comp+15.1%
- Model
- 68.6%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Under 273.5 Pass Yds+8.3%
- Model
- 61.8%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Over 13.5 Rush Yds+8.2%
- Model
- 51.7%
- Book
- 43.5%+130
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans start?
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (NFL) starts at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at Reliant Stadium, Houston.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans?
The model projects about 47.5 combined points.
Who does the model favor in Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans?
The model favors Houston Texans by about 2.5 points.
How many model edges are there for Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans?
The model currently finds 9 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Dak Prescott under 24.5 comp (−115): model 68.6% vs book 53.5%, an edge of +15.1%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).