EdgeGoatKansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersPreview · NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV ML | 35.1% | 35.7%+180 | −0.7% |
| KC ML | 64.9% | 68.8%−220 | −3.8% |
| LV +4.5 | 51.8% | 52.4%−110 | −0.5% |
| KC -4.5 | 48.2% | 52.4%−110 | −4.2% |
| Over 47.5 | 51.4% | 52.4%−110 | −0.9% |
| Under 47.5 | 48.6% | 52.4%−110 | −3.8% |
- LV ML−0.7%
- Model
- 35.1%
- Book
- 35.7%+180
- KC ML−3.8%
- Model
- 64.9%
- Book
- 68.8%−220
- LV +4.5−0.5%
- Model
- 51.8%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- KC -4.5−4.2%
- Model
- 48.2%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Over 47.5−0.9%
- Model
- 51.4%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 47.5−3.8%
- Model
- 48.6%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Top prop edges
Showing 2 of 2 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kenneth Walker III | Under 92.5 Rush Yds | 64.4% | 58.3%−140 | +6.1% |
| Patrick Mahomes | Over 230.5 Pass Yds | 60.1% | 58.3%−140 | +1.8% |
- Under 92.5 Rush Yds+6.1%
- Model
- 64.4%
- Book
- 58.3%−140
- Over 230.5 Pass Yds+1.8%
- Model
- 60.1%
- Book
- 58.3%−140
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders start?
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (NFL) starts at 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders?
The model projects about 48 combined points.
Who does the model favor in Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders?
The model favors Kansas City Chiefs by about 4.5 points.
How many model edges are there for Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders?
The model currently finds 2 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Kenneth Walker III under 92.5 rush yds (−140): model 64.4% vs book 58.3%, an edge of +6.1%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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