EdgeGoatLos Angeles Chargers at Seattle SeahawksPreview · NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET
Lumen Field, Seattle
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA ML | 73.8% | 77.8%−350 | −4.0% |
| LAC ML | 26.2% | 26.7%+275 | −0.5% |
| SEA -7 | 48.2% | 53.5%−115 | −5.3% |
| LAC +7 | 51.8% | 51.2%−105 | +0.6% |
| Over 43 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
| Under 43 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
- SEA ML−4.0%
- Model
- 73.8%
- Book
- 77.8%−350
- LAC ML−0.5%
- Model
- 26.2%
- Book
- 26.7%+275
- SEA -7−5.3%
- Model
- 48.2%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- LAC +7+0.6%
- Model
- 51.8%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
- Over 43−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 43−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 3 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Justin Herbert | Under 190.5 Pass Yds | 62.9% | 48.8%+105 | +14.2% |
 Emanuel Wilson | Under 45.5 Rush Yds | 66.5% | 58.3%−140 | +8.1% |
| Sam Darnold | Over 228.5 Pass Yds | 58.6% | 56.5%−130 | +2.1% |
- Under 190.5 Pass Yds+14.2%
- Model
- 62.9%
- Book
- 48.8%+105
- Under 45.5 Rush Yds+8.1%
- Model
- 66.5%
- Book
- 58.3%−140
- Over 228.5 Pass Yds+2.1%
- Model
- 58.6%
- Book
- 56.5%−130
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks start?
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (NFL) starts at 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at Lumen Field, Seattle.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks?
The model projects about 43 combined points.
Who does the model favor in Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks?
The model favors Seattle Seahawks by about 7.5 points.
How many model edges are there for Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks?
The model currently finds 3 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Justin Herbert under 190.5 pass yds (+105): model 62.9% vs book 48.8%, an edge of +14.2%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).