EdgeGoatNew England Patriots at Buffalo BillsPreview · NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF ML | 72.4% | 75.0%−300 | −2.6% |
| NE ML | 27.6% | 28.6%+250 | −1.0% |
| BUF -7 | 46.4% | 51.2%−105 | −4.8% |
| NE +7 | 53.6% | 53.5%−115 | +0.1% |
| Over 48.5 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
| Under 48.5 | 50.0% | 52.4%−110 | −2.4% |
- BUF ML−2.6%
- Model
- 72.4%
- Book
- 75.0%−300
- NE ML−1.0%
- Model
- 27.6%
- Book
- 28.6%+250
- BUF -7−4.8%
- Model
- 46.4%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
- NE +7+0.1%
- Model
- 53.6%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Over 48.5−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 48.5−2.4%
- Model
- 50.0%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 12 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Josh Allen | Over 38.5 Rush Yds | 55.4% | 40.8%+145 | +14.5% |
| Josh Allen | Under 238.5 Pass Yds | 63.2% | 51.2%−105 | +12.0% |
 Drake Maye | Under 30.5 Pass Att | 61.6% | 51.2%−105 | +10.4% |
- Over 38.5 Rush Yds+14.5%
- Model
- 55.4%
- Book
- 40.8%+145
- Under 238.5 Pass Yds+12.0%
- Model
- 63.2%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
- Under 30.5 Pass Att+10.4%
- Model
- 61.6%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills start?
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (NFL) starts at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills?
The model projects about 48.5 combined points.
Who does the model favor in New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills?
The model favors Buffalo Bills by about 7 points.
How many model edges are there for New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills?
The model currently finds 12 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Josh Allen over 38.5 rush yds (+145): model 55.4% vs book 40.8%, an edge of +14.5%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).