EdgeGoatFinal
New England Patriots at Buffalo BillsRecap · NFL · Sunday, October 4, 2026
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park
What the model priced before the start
The model's lines frozen before the start: its probability next to the break-even rate of the price it was offered.
| Line | Model | Book |
|---|---|---|
| Greg Rousseau U 0.5 Sacks | 90.5% | 43.5%+130 |
| Bradley Chubb U 0.5 Sacks | 91.2% | 55.6%−125 |
| Elijah Ponder U 0.5 Sacks | 92.2% | 72.2%−260 |
| Dre'Mont Jones U 0.5 Sacks | 93.2% | 75.0%−300 |
| Milton Williams U 0.5 Sacks | 93.7% | 76.5%−325 |
| Gabe Jacas U 0.5 Sacks | 90.2% | 77.8%−350 |
| Ed Oliver U 0.5 Sacks | 89.5% | 77.8%−350 |
| Josh Allen U 239.5 Pass Yds | 62.6% | 51.2%−105 |
| Drake Maye U 31.5 Pass Att | 65.1% | 54.5%−120 |
| Josh Allen O 39.5 Rush Yds | 50.3% | 40.8%+145 |
| Deone Walker U 0.5 Sacks | 92.2% | 83.3%−500 |
| Dorian Williams U 3.5 Solo Tkl | 62.3% | 53.5%−115 |
- Model
- 90.5%
- Book
- 43.5%+130
- Model
- 91.2%
- Book
- 55.6%−125
- Model
- 92.2%
- Book
- 72.2%−260
- Model
- 93.2%
- Book
- 75.0%−300
- Model
- 93.7%
- Book
- 76.5%−325
- Model
- 90.2%
- Book
- 77.8%−350
- Model
- 89.5%
- Book
- 77.8%−350
- Model
- 62.6%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
- Model
- 65.1%
- Book
- 54.5%−120
- Model
- 50.3%
- Book
- 40.8%+145
- Model
- 92.2%
- Book
- 83.3%−500
- Model
- 62.3%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
Frequently asked questions
When does New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills start?
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (NFL) started at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, October 4, 2026 at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park.
What was the final score of New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills?
New England Patriots won 29–26.
Build around this game in the app
See every line the model prices for this game, build correlation-aware parlays, and track each leg live.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).