EdgeGoatAtlanta Falcons at New Orleans SaintsPreview · NFL · Monday, October 5, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO ML | 60.1% | 59.2%−145 | +0.9% |
| ATL ML | 39.9% | 44.4%+125 | −4.5% |
| NO -2.5 | 54.2% | 54.5%−120 | −0.3% |
| ATL +2.5 | 45.8% | 50.0%+100 | −4.2% |
| Over 48 | 51.5% | 52.4%−110 | −0.9% |
| Under 48 | 48.5% | 52.4%−110 | −3.9% |
- NO ML+0.9%
- Model
- 60.1%
- Book
- 59.2%−145
- ATL ML−4.5%
- Model
- 39.9%
- Book
- 44.4%+125
- NO -2.5−0.3%
- Model
- 54.2%
- Book
- 54.5%−120
- ATL +2.5−4.2%
- Model
- 45.8%
- Book
- 50.0%+100
- Over 48−0.9%
- Model
- 51.5%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 48−3.9%
- Model
- 48.5%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 8 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tyler Shough | Over 31.5 Pass Att | 68.1% | 55.6%−125 | +12.6% |
| Kendre Miller | Over 25.5 Rush Yds | 52.4% | 40.8%+145 | +11.6% |
 Bijan Robinson | Under 4.5 Rec | 61.4% | 54.5%−120 | +6.8% |
- Over 31.5 Pass Att+12.6%
- Model
- 68.1%
- Book
- 55.6%−125
- Over 25.5 Rush Yds+11.6%
- Model
- 52.4%
- Book
- 40.8%+145
- Under 4.5 Rec+6.8%
- Model
- 61.4%
- Book
- 54.5%−120
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints start?
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (NFL) starts at 8:15 PM ET on Monday, October 5, 2026 at Caesars Superdome, New Orleans.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints?
The model projects about 48.5 combined points.
Who does the model favor in Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints?
The model favors New Orleans Saints by about 3 points.
How many model edges are there for Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints?
The model currently finds 8 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Tyler Shough over 31.5 pass att (−125): model 68.1% vs book 55.6%, an edge of +12.6%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).