EdgeGoatLos Angeles Kings at Colorado AvalanchePreview · NHL · Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET
Ball Arena, Denver
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in goals); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| COL ML | 63.4% | 64.3%−180 | −0.9% |
| LA ML | 36.6% | 40.0%+150 | −3.4% |
| COL -1.5 | 40.6% | 43.5%+130 | −2.9% |
| LA +1.5 | 59.4% | 62.3%−165 | −2.8% |
| Over 6.5 | 43.8% | 48.8%+105 | −5.0% |
| Under 6.5 | 56.2% | 56.5%−130 | −0.3% |
- COL ML−0.9%
- Model
- 63.4%
- Book
- 64.3%−180
- LA ML−3.4%
- Model
- 36.6%
- Book
- 40.0%+150
- COL -1.5−2.9%
- Model
- 40.6%
- Book
- 43.5%+130
- LA +1.5−2.8%
- Model
- 59.4%
- Book
- 62.3%−165
- Over 6.5−5.0%
- Model
- 43.8%
- Book
- 48.8%+105
- Under 6.5−0.3%
- Model
- 56.2%
- Book
- 56.5%−130
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 11 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mats Zuccarello | Over 0.5 P | 62.3% | 47.6%+110 | +14.7% |
 Nazem Kadri | Over 1.5 SOG | 75.5% | 64.9%−185 | +10.6% |
| Adrian Kempe | Over 0.5 P | 60.2% | 53.5%−115 | +6.7% |
- Over 0.5 P+14.7%
- Model
- 62.3%
- Book
- 47.6%+110
- Over 1.5 SOG+10.6%
- Model
- 75.5%
- Book
- 64.9%−185
- Over 0.5 P+6.7%
- Model
- 60.2%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche start?
Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche (NHL) starts at 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at Ball Arena, Denver.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche?
The model projects about 6.3 combined goals.
Who does the model favor in Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche?
The model favors Colorado Avalanche by about 0.9 goals.
How many model edges are there for Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche?
The model currently finds 11 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Mats Zuccarello over 0.5 p (+110): model 62.3% vs book 47.6%, an edge of +14.7%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).