EdgeGoatNew York Islanders at Toronto Maple LeafsPreview · NHL · Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in goals); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR ML | 53.5% | 55.6%−125 | −2.0% |
| NYI ML | 46.5% | 48.8%+105 | −2.3% |
| TOR -1.5 | 31.6% | 35.7%+180 | −4.1% |
| NYI +1.5 | 68.4% | 71.4%−250 | −3.0% |
| Over 5.5 | 58.4% | 59.2%−145 | −0.7% |
| Under 5.5 | 41.6% | 46.5%+115 | −5.0% |
- TOR ML−2.0%
- Model
- 53.5%
- Book
- 55.6%−125
- NYI ML−2.3%
- Model
- 46.5%
- Book
- 48.8%+105
- TOR -1.5−4.1%
- Model
- 31.6%
- Book
- 35.7%+180
- NYI +1.5−3.0%
- Model
- 68.4%
- Book
- 71.4%−250
- Over 5.5−0.7%
- Model
- 58.4%
- Book
- 59.2%−145
- Under 5.5−5.0%
- Model
- 41.6%
- Book
- 46.5%+115
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 5 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gavin McKenna | Under 1.5 SOG | 68.7% | 56.5%−130 | +12.2% |
| Gavin McKenna | Under 0.5 P | 74.8% | 63.6%−175 | +11.1% |
| John Tavares | Over 0.5 P | 57.5% | 53.5%−115 | +4.1% |
- Under 1.5 SOG+12.2%
- Model
- 68.7%
- Book
- 56.5%−130
- Under 0.5 P+11.1%
- Model
- 74.8%
- Book
- 63.6%−175
- Over 0.5 P+4.1%
- Model
- 57.5%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs start?
New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs (NHL) starts at 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at Scotiabank Arena, Toronto.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs?
The model projects about 6.2 combined goals.
Who does the model favor in New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs?
The model favors Toronto Maple Leafs by about 0.2 goals.
How many model edges are there for New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs?
The model currently finds 5 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Gavin McKenna under 1.5 sog (−130): model 68.7% vs book 56.5%, an edge of +12.2%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).