EdgeGoatPittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia FlyersPreview · NHL · Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET
Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in goals); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI ML | 55.4% | 57.4%−135 | −2.0% |
| PIT ML | 44.6% | 46.5%+115 | −2.0% |
| PHI -1.5 | 33.5% | 38.5%+160 | −5.0% |
| PIT +1.5 | 66.5% | 67.7%−210 | −1.2% |
| Over 6.5 | 43.1% | 48.8%+105 | −5.7% |
| Under 6.5 | 56.9% | 56.5%−130 | +0.4% |
- PHI ML−2.0%
- Model
- 55.4%
- Book
- 57.4%−135
- PIT ML−2.0%
- Model
- 44.6%
- Book
- 46.5%+115
- PHI -1.5−5.0%
- Model
- 33.5%
- Book
- 38.5%+160
- PIT +1.5−1.2%
- Model
- 66.5%
- Book
- 67.7%−210
- Over 6.5−5.7%
- Model
- 43.1%
- Book
- 48.8%+105
- Under 6.5+0.4%
- Model
- 56.9%
- Book
- 56.5%−130
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 10 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sidney Crosby | Over 1.5 SOG | 75.1% | 62.3%−165 | +12.8% |
 Jamie Drysdale | Under 0.5 P | 67.9% | 59.2%−145 | +8.8% |
| Evgeni Malkin | Over 1.5 SOG | 63.7% | 56.5%−130 | +7.2% |
- Over 1.5 SOG+12.8%
- Model
- 75.1%
- Book
- 62.3%−165
- Under 0.5 P+8.8%
- Model
- 67.9%
- Book
- 59.2%−145
- Over 1.5 SOG+7.2%
- Model
- 63.7%
- Book
- 56.5%−130
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers start?
Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers (NHL) starts at 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers?
The model projects about 6.2 combined goals.
Who does the model favor in Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers?
The model favors Philadelphia Flyers by about 0.3 goals.
How many model edges are there for Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers?
The model currently finds 10 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Sidney Crosby over 1.5 sog (−165): model 75.1% vs book 62.3%, an edge of +12.8%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).