EdgeGoat
Erik Karlsson
Pittsburgh Penguins · #65 · 91 games logged
Model vs book today
Current lines the model prices for this player — including ones where the book's price is better than the model's number.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 PTSOTT @ PIT | 71.7% | 57.4%−135 | +14.3 pts |
- Over 0.5 PTSOTT @ PIT+14.3 pts
- Model
- 71.7%
- Book
- 57.4%−135
Recent game log
| Date | Opp | G | A | PTS | SOG | HIT | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | @ SJ | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Nov 8 | @ ANA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Nov 7 | @ LA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nov 5 | vs BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nov 3 | vs VGK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 31 | @ MTL | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 29 | vs UTA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Oct 24 | vs NSH | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Oct 22 | vs FLA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 19 | @ UTA | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Oct 17 | @ VGK | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Oct 16 | @ COL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 13 | @ CHI | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 10 | vs DAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 9 | @ CBJ | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 7 | @ WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Oct 5 | vs WPG | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Oct 3 | vs MTL | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sep 30 | @ PHI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Apr 29 | @ PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Projection vs line history
Model lines frozen before each game: the model's probability next to the break-even rate of the price.
| Line | Date | Projection | Model | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 PTS | Nov 11 · projected 1.0 | 1.0 | 72.5% | 66.1% |
| Over 0.5 PTS | Nov 8 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 62.7% | 60.0% |
| Over 0.5 A | Nov 8 · projected 0.7 | 0.7 | 54.4% | 52.4% |
| Over 0.5 PTS | Nov 7 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 63.5% | 56.5% |
| Over 0.5 PTS | Nov 5 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 62.8% | 61.5% |
| Over 0.5 PTS | Oct 31 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 61.5% | 57.4% |
| Under 2.5 SOG | Oct 29 · projected 2.1 | 2.1 | 64.7% | 63.6% |
| Over 0.5 PTS | Oct 24 · projected 1.0 | 1.0 | 64.2% | 60.0% |
| Over 0.5 A | Oct 24 · projected 0.8 | 0.8 | 54.0% | 51.2% |
| Over 0.5 PTS | Oct 19 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 61.2% | 55.6% |
| Over 0.5 PTS | Oct 17 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 61.1% | 52.4% |
| Over 0.5 PTS | Oct 16 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 61.0% | 54.5% |
| Over 0.5 PTS | Oct 10 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 59.5% | 54.5% |
| Over 0.5 PTS | Oct 9 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 59.6% | 58.3% |
| Over 0.5 PTS | Oct 7 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 60.7% | 56.5% |
| Over 0.5 PTS | Oct 5 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 60.8% | 59.2% |
| Over 0.5 PTS | Oct 3 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 59.5% | 57.4% |
| Over 0.5 PTS | Sep 30 · projected 0.9 | 0.9 | 58.6% | 58.3% |
- Over 0.5 PTSNov 11 · projected 1.0
- Model
- 72.5%
- Book
- 66.1%
- Over 0.5 PTSNov 8 · projected 0.9
- Model
- 62.7%
- Book
- 60.0%
- Over 0.5 ANov 8 · projected 0.7
- Model
- 54.4%
- Book
- 52.4%
- Over 0.5 PTSNov 7 · projected 0.9
- Model
- 63.5%
- Book
- 56.5%
- Over 0.5 PTSNov 5 · projected 0.9
- Model
- 62.8%
- Book
- 61.5%
- Over 0.5 PTSOct 31 · projected 0.9
- Model
- 61.5%
- Book
- 57.4%
- Under 2.5 SOGOct 29 · projected 2.1
- Model
- 64.7%
- Book
- 63.6%
- Over 0.5 PTSOct 24 · projected 1.0
- Model
- 64.2%
- Book
- 60.0%
- Over 0.5 AOct 24 · projected 0.8
- Model
- 54.0%
- Book
- 51.2%
- Over 0.5 PTSOct 19 · projected 0.9
- Model
- 61.2%
- Book
- 55.6%
- Over 0.5 PTSOct 17 · projected 0.9
- Model
- 61.1%
- Book
- 52.4%
- Over 0.5 PTSOct 16 · projected 0.9
- Model
- 61.0%
- Book
- 54.5%
- Over 0.5 PTSOct 10 · projected 0.9
- Model
- 59.5%
- Book
- 54.5%
- Over 0.5 PTSOct 9 · projected 0.9
- Model
- 59.6%
- Book
- 58.3%
- Over 0.5 PTSOct 7 · projected 0.9
- Model
- 60.7%
- Book
- 56.5%
- Over 0.5 PTSOct 5 · projected 0.9
- Model
- 60.8%
- Book
- 59.2%
- Over 0.5 PTSOct 3 · projected 0.9
- Model
- 59.5%
- Book
- 57.4%
- Over 0.5 PTSSep 30 · projected 0.9
- Model
- 58.6%
- Book
- 58.3%
Frequently asked questions
What is Erik Karlsson averaging over the last 20 games?
Across the last 20 logged games, Erik Karlsson is averaging 0.2 g, 0.8 a, 1 pts, 2.2 sog.
How did Erik Karlsson play in the last game?
On Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at SJ, Erik Karlsson recorded 0 g, 1 a, 1 pts, 5 sog.
What does the EdgeGoat model say about Erik Karlsson today?
The strongest current line: Erik Karlsson over 0.5 pts (−135): model 71.7% vs book 57.4%, an edge of +14.3 pts.
Every Erik Karlsson line, priced
Alt lines, the full projected distribution, and correlation with teammates when you build a parlay.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).