EdgeGoatGolden State Valkyries at Dallas WingsPreview · WNBA · Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · 9:00 PM ET
College Park Center, Arlington
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL ML | 38.5% | 40.8%+145 | −2.3% |
| GS ML | 61.5% | 63.6%−175 | −2.1% |
| DAL +4.5 | 51.2% | 53.5%−115 | −2.3% |
| GS -4.5 | 48.8% | 51.2%−105 | −2.4% |
| Over 156.5 | 51.6% | 52.4%−110 | −0.8% |
| Under 156.5 | 48.4% | 52.4%−110 | −4.0% |
- DAL ML−2.3%
- Model
- 38.5%
- Book
- 40.8%+145
- GS ML−2.1%
- Model
- 61.5%
- Book
- 63.6%−175
- DAL +4.5−2.3%
- Model
- 51.2%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- GS -4.5−2.4%
- Model
- 48.8%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
- Over 156.5−0.8%
- Model
- 51.6%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 156.5−4.0%
- Model
- 48.4%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 21 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Awak Kuier | Under 5.5 REB | 79.2% | 60.0%−150 | +19.2% |
| Awak Kuier | Under 7.5 PTS | 75.5% | 56.5%−130 | +19.0% |
 Gabby Williams | Under 17.5 PTS | 72.7% | 55.6%−125 | +17.1% |
- Under 5.5 REB+19.2%
- Model
- 79.2%
- Book
- 60.0%−150
- Under 7.5 PTS+19.0%
- Model
- 75.5%
- Book
- 56.5%−130
- Under 17.5 PTS+17.1%
- Model
- 72.7%
- Book
- 55.6%−125
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings start?
Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings (WNBA) starts at 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at College Park Center, Arlington.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings?
The model projects about 157.1 combined points.
Who does the model favor in Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings?
The model favors Golden State Valkyries by about 4.1 points.
How many model edges are there for Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings?
The model currently finds 21 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Awak Kuier under 5.5 reb (−150): model 79.2% vs book 60.0%, an edge of +19.2%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).