EdgeGoatChicago Cubs at San Diego PadresPreview · MLB · Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · 10:00 PM ET
Petco Park, San Diego
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in runs); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| SD ML | 48.9% | 57.4%−135 | −8.5% |
| CHC ML | 51.1% | 46.5%+115 | +4.5% |
| SD -1.5 | 34.2% | 37.7%+165 | −3.5% |
| CHC +1.5 | 65.8% | 66.1%−195 | −0.3% |
| Over 7.5 | 54.9% | 50.0%+100 | +4.9% |
| Under 7.5 | 45.1% | 54.5%−120 | −9.4% |
- SD ML−8.5%
- Model
- 48.9%
- Book
- 57.4%−135
- CHC ML+4.5%
- Model
- 51.1%
- Book
- 46.5%+115
- SD -1.5−3.5%
- Model
- 34.2%
- Book
- 37.7%+165
- CHC +1.5−0.3%
- Model
- 65.8%
- Book
- 66.1%−195
- Over 7.5+4.9%
- Model
- 54.9%
- Book
- 50.0%+100
- Under 7.5−9.4%
- Model
- 45.1%
- Book
- 54.5%−120
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 4 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ethan Salas | Under 0.5 Batter BB | 81.6% | 80.0%−400 | +1.6% |
 Kevin Gausman | Over 3.5 Pitcher K's | 73.4% | 72.2%−260 | +1.1% |
| Michael Busch | Over 0.5 Hits | 57.5% | 56.5%−130 | +1.0% |
- Under 0.5 Batter BB+1.6%
- Model
- 81.6%
- Book
- 80.0%−400
- Over 3.5 Pitcher K's+1.1%
- Model
- 73.4%
- Book
- 72.2%−260
- Over 0.5 Hits+1.0%
- Model
- 57.5%
- Book
- 56.5%−130
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres start?
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (MLB) starts at 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at Petco Park, San Diego.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres?
The model projects about 8.5 combined runs.
Who does the model favor in Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres?
The model favors Chicago Cubs by about 0.1 runs.
How many model edges are there for Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres?
The model currently finds 4 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Ethan Salas under 0.5 batter bb (−400): model 81.6% vs book 80.0%, an edge of +1.6%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
Build around this game in the app
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).