MLB slate · Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Name: MLB model board, 2026-09-30
Creator: EdgeGoat
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

4 games · 25 priced model edges

← Sep 29·Oct 1 →

Games

2:00 PM ET9 model edges

Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta Braves

5:00 PM ET5 model edges

Chicago White Sox

Houston Astros

8:00 PM ET6 model edges

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

10:00 PM ET5 model edges

Chicago Cubs

San Diego Padres

Model board highlights

Model probability vs book probability
Player	Line	Model	Book	Edge
Jarren Duran	Under 0.5 RunsBOS @ NYY	81.8%	76.5%−325	+5.3%
Adley Rutschman	Under 0.5 Batter BBBOS @ NYY	73.5%	68.8%−220	+4.8%
Willson Contreras	Under 0.5 Batter BBBOS @ NYY	71.1%	66.7%−200	+4.5%
Edmundo Sosa	Under 0.5 Batter BBPHI @ ATL	88.7%	84.6%−550	+4.1%
Alec Bohm	Under 0.5 Batter BBPHI @ ATL	76.2%	73.3%−275	+2.9%
J.T. Realmuto	Under 0.5 Batter BBPHI @ ATL	79.0%	76.5%−325	+2.6%

Jarren Duran
Under 0.5 RunsBOS @ NYY
+5.3%
Model
81.8%
Book
76.5%−325
Adley Rutschman
Under 0.5 Batter BBBOS @ NYY
+4.8%
Model
73.5%
Book
68.8%−220
Willson Contreras
Under 0.5 Batter BBBOS @ NYY
+4.5%
Model
71.1%
Book
66.7%−200
Edmundo Sosa
Under 0.5 Batter BBPHI @ ATL
+4.1%
Model
88.7%
Book
84.6%−550
Alec Bohm
Under 0.5 Batter BBPHI @ ATL
+2.9%
Model
76.2%
Book
73.3%−275
J.T. Realmuto
Under 0.5 Batter BBPHI @ ATL
+2.6%
Model
79.0%
Book
76.5%−325

Model % vs the break-even % of the Hard Rock price. How to read thisFull model board in the app →

The whole MLB board for Sep 30

Every line the model prices on this slate, sortable by edge and expected value, with correlation-aware parlay building.

Open the model — free How the model works

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).