EdgeGoatChicago White Sox at Houston AstrosPreview · MLB · Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · 5:00 PM ET
Daikin Park, Houston
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in runs); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU ML | 57.8% | 60.0%−150 | −2.2% |
| CHW ML | 42.2% | 44.4%+125 | −2.3% |
| HOU -1.5 | 38.8% | 40.0%+150 | −1.2% |
| CHW +1.5 | 61.2% | 64.3%−180 | −3.1% |
| Over 7.5 | 49.5% | 52.4%−110 | −2.8% |
| Under 7.5 | 50.5% | 52.4%−110 | −1.9% |
- HOU ML−2.2%
- Model
- 57.8%
- Book
- 60.0%−150
- CHW ML−2.3%
- Model
- 42.2%
- Book
- 44.4%+125
- HOU -1.5−1.2%
- Model
- 38.8%
- Book
- 40.0%+150
- CHW +1.5−3.1%
- Model
- 61.2%
- Book
- 64.3%−180
- Over 7.5−2.8%
- Model
- 49.5%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
- Under 7.5−1.9%
- Model
- 50.5%
- Book
- 52.4%−110
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 6 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Yainer Diaz | Under 0.5 Batter BB | 82.7% | 81.0%−425 | +1.8% |
| Jeremy Pena | Under 0.5 Batter BB | 78.0% | 76.5%−325 | +1.5% |
| Christian Walker | Under 0.5 Batter BB | 74.7% | 73.3%−275 | +1.4% |
- Under 0.5 Batter BB+1.8%
- Model
- 82.7%
- Book
- 81.0%−425
- Under 0.5 Batter BB+1.5%
- Model
- 78.0%
- Book
- 76.5%−325
- Under 0.5 Batter BB+1.4%
- Model
- 74.7%
- Book
- 73.3%−275
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros start?
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros (MLB) starts at 5:00 PM ET on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at Daikin Park, Houston.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros?
The model projects about 8.0 combined runs.
Who does the model favor in Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros?
The model favors Houston Astros by about 0.6 runs.
How many model edges are there for Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros?
The model currently finds 6 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Yainer Diaz under 0.5 batter bb (−425): model 82.7% vs book 81.0%, an edge of +1.8%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).