EdgeGoatPhiladelphia Phillies at Atlanta BravesPreview · MLB · Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · 2:00 PM ET
Truist Park, Atlanta
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in runs); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL ML | 49.1% | 51.2%−105 | −2.1% |
| PHI ML | 50.9% | 53.5%−115 | −2.6% |
| ATL +1.5 | 62.5% | 64.9%−185 | −2.4% |
| PHI -1.5 | 37.5% | 40.0%+150 | −2.5% |
| Over 7.5 | 46.4% | 47.6%+110 | −1.3% |
| Under 7.5 | 53.6% | 57.4%−135 | −3.8% |
- ATL ML−2.1%
- Model
- 49.1%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
- PHI ML−2.6%
- Model
- 50.9%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- ATL +1.5−2.4%
- Model
- 62.5%
- Book
- 64.9%−185
- PHI -1.5−2.5%
- Model
- 37.5%
- Book
- 40.0%+150
- Over 7.5−1.3%
- Model
- 46.4%
- Book
- 47.6%+110
- Under 7.5−3.8%
- Model
- 53.6%
- Book
- 57.4%−135
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 9 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Edmundo Sosa | Under 0.5 Batter BB | 88.7% | 84.6%−550 | +4.1% |
| Alec Bohm | Under 0.5 Batter BB | 76.2% | 73.3%−275 | +2.9% |
| J.T. Realmuto | Under 0.5 Batter BB | 79.0% | 76.5%−325 | +2.6% |
- Under 0.5 Batter BB+4.1%
- Model
- 88.7%
- Book
- 84.6%−550
- Under 0.5 Batter BB+2.9%
- Model
- 76.2%
- Book
- 73.3%−275
- Under 0.5 Batter BB+2.6%
- Model
- 79.0%
- Book
- 76.5%−325
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves start?
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (MLB) starts at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at Truist Park, Atlanta.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves?
The model projects about 7.7 combined runs.
Who does the model favor in Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves?
The model favors Philadelphia Phillies by about 0.1 runs.
How many model edges are there for Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves?
The model currently finds 9 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Edmundo Sosa under 0.5 batter bb (−550): model 88.7% vs book 84.6%, an edge of +4.1%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).