EdgeGoatBoston Red Sox at New York YankeesPreview · MLB · Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET
Yankee Stadium, Bronx
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in runs); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYY ML | 55.4% | 57.4%−135 | −2.1% |
| BOS ML | 44.6% | 47.6%+110 | −3.0% |
| NYY -1.5 | 35.7% | 37.0%+170 | −1.4% |
| BOS +1.5 | 64.3% | 67.7%−210 | −3.4% |
| Over 6.5 | 51.9% | 54.5%−120 | −2.6% |
| Under 6.5 | 48.1% | 50.0%+100 | −1.9% |
- NYY ML−2.1%
- Model
- 55.4%
- Book
- 57.4%−135
- BOS ML−3.0%
- Model
- 44.6%
- Book
- 47.6%+110
- NYY -1.5−1.4%
- Model
- 35.7%
- Book
- 37.0%+170
- BOS +1.5−3.4%
- Model
- 64.3%
- Book
- 67.7%−210
- Over 6.5−2.6%
- Model
- 51.9%
- Book
- 54.5%−120
- Under 6.5−1.9%
- Model
- 48.1%
- Book
- 50.0%+100
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 6 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jarren Duran | Under 0.5 Runs | 81.8% | 76.5%−325 | +5.3% |
| Adley Rutschman | Under 0.5 Batter BB | 73.5% | 68.8%−220 | +4.8% |
| Willson Contreras | Under 0.5 Batter BB | 71.1% | 66.7%−200 | +4.5% |
- Under 0.5 Runs+5.3%
- Model
- 81.8%
- Book
- 76.5%−325
- Under 0.5 Batter BB+4.8%
- Model
- 73.5%
- Book
- 68.8%−220
- Under 0.5 Batter BB+4.5%
- Model
- 71.1%
- Book
- 66.7%−200
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees start?
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (MLB) starts at 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at Yankee Stadium, Bronx.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees?
The model projects about 7.2 combined runs.
Who does the model favor in Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees?
The model favors New York Yankees by about 0.4 runs.
How many model edges are there for Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees?
The model currently finds 6 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Jarren Duran under 0.5 runs (−325): model 81.8% vs book 76.5%, an edge of +5.3%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).