EdgeGoatAtlanta Dream at Washington MysticsPreview · WNBA · Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · 7:00 PM ET
CareFirst Arena, Washington
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSH ML | 39.4% | 41.7%+140 | −2.2% |
| ATL ML | 60.6% | 63.0%−170 | −2.4% |
| WSH +3.5 | 49.4% | 51.2%−105 | −1.9% |
| ATL -3.5 | 50.6% | 53.5%−115 | −2.8% |
| Over 165.5 | 50.8% | 53.5%−115 | −2.6% |
| Under 165.5 | 49.2% | 51.2%−105 | −2.1% |
- WSH ML−2.2%
- Model
- 39.4%
- Book
- 41.7%+140
- ATL ML−2.4%
- Model
- 60.6%
- Book
- 63.0%−170
- WSH +3.5−1.9%
- Model
- 49.4%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
- ATL -3.5−2.8%
- Model
- 50.6%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Over 165.5−2.6%
- Model
- 50.8%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Under 165.5−2.1%
- Model
- 49.2%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 21 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shakira Austin | Under 10.5 REB | 72.0% | 54.5%−120 | +17.4% |
| Shakira Austin | Under 17.5 PTS | 68.8% | 53.5%−115 | +15.3% |
 Jordin Canada | Under 7.5 AST | 70.5% | 55.6%−125 | +15.0% |
- Under 10.5 REB+17.4%
- Model
- 72.0%
- Book
- 54.5%−120
- Under 17.5 PTS+15.3%
- Model
- 68.8%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Under 7.5 AST+15.0%
- Model
- 70.5%
- Book
- 55.6%−125
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics start?
Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics (WNBA) starts at 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at CareFirst Arena, Washington.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics?
The model projects about 165.8 combined points.
Who does the model favor in Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics?
The model favors Atlanta Dream by about 3.7 points.
How many model edges are there for Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics?
The model currently finds 21 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Shakira Austin under 10.5 reb (−120): model 72.0% vs book 54.5%, an edge of +17.4%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).