EdgeGoatOklahoma City Thunder at Memphis GrizzliesPreview · NBA · Friday, November 6, 2026 · 8:00 PM ET
FedExForum, Memphis
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEM ML | 51.1% | 40.0%+150 | +11.1 pts |
| OKC ML | 48.9% | 64.9%−185 | −16.0 pts |
| MEM +4.5 | 64.8% | 53.5%−115 | +11.3 pts |
| OKC -4.5 | 35.2% | 51.2%−105 | −16.0 pts |
| Over 223.5 | 56.7% | 53.5%−115 | +3.2 pts |
| Under 223.5 | 43.3% | 51.2%−105 | −7.9 pts |
- MEM ML+11.1 pts
- Model
- 51.1%
- Book
- 40.0%+150
- OKC ML−16.0 pts
- Model
- 48.9%
- Book
- 64.9%−185
- MEM +4.5+11.3 pts
- Model
- 64.8%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- OKC -4.5−16.0 pts
- Model
- 35.2%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
- Over 223.5+3.2 pts
- Model
- 56.7%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Under 223.5−7.9 pts
- Model
- 43.3%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 20 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 AST | 70.0% | 51.2%−105 | +18.7 pts | |
| Under 7.5 REB | 71.6% | 54.5%−120 | +17.1 pts | |
| Under 20.5 PTS | 71.4% | 55.6%−125 | +15.9 pts |
- Under 2.5 AST+18.7 pts
- Model
- 70.0%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
- Under 7.5 REB+17.1 pts
- Model
- 71.6%
- Book
- 54.5%−120
- Under 20.5 PTS+15.9 pts
- Model
- 71.4%
- Book
- 55.6%−125
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies start?
Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies (NBA) starts at 8:00 PM ET on Friday, November 6, 2026 at FedExForum, Memphis.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies?
The model projects about 225.9 combined points.
Who does the model favor in Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies?
The model favors Memphis Grizzlies by about 0.4 points.
How many model edges are there for Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies?
The model currently finds 20 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: Alex Caruso under 2.5 ast (−105): model 70.0% vs book 51.2%, an edge of +18.7 pts. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).