EdgeGoatIndiana Fever at Las Vegas AcesPreview · WNBA · Thursday, October 1, 2026 · 9:00 PM ET
Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas
Win probability · model vs book moneyline
Game lines
Every side the book prices (spread and total in points); model probability against the break-even rate of each price.
| Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV ML | 61.0% | 63.6%−175 | −2.6% |
| IND ML | 39.0% | 40.8%+145 | −1.8% |
| LV -3.5 | 51.4% | 54.5%−120 | −3.2% |
| IND +3.5 | 48.6% | 50.0%+100 | −1.4% |
| Over 180.5 | 51.8% | 53.5%−115 | −1.7% |
| Under 180.5 | 48.2% | 51.2%−105 | −3.0% |
- LV ML−2.6%
- Model
- 61.0%
- Book
- 63.6%−175
- IND ML−1.8%
- Model
- 39.0%
- Book
- 40.8%+145
- LV -3.5−3.2%
- Model
- 51.4%
- Book
- 54.5%−120
- IND +3.5−1.4%
- Model
- 48.6%
- Book
- 50.0%+100
- Over 180.5−1.7%
- Model
- 51.8%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Under 180.5−3.0%
- Model
- 48.2%
- Book
- 51.2%−105
Top prop edges
Showing 3 of 21 priced edges.
| Player | Line | Model | Book | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 A'ja Wilson | Under 28.5 PTS | 71.6% | 53.5%−115 | +18.1% |
 Aliyah Boston | Under 8.5 REB | 72.4% | 54.5%−120 | +17.9% |
| A'ja Wilson | Under 10.5 REB | 69.3% | 53.5%−115 | +15.8% |
- Under 28.5 PTS+18.1%
- Model
- 71.6%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
- Under 8.5 REB+17.9%
- Model
- 72.4%
- Book
- 54.5%−120
- Under 10.5 REB+15.8%
- Model
- 69.3%
- Book
- 53.5%−115
Players on the board
Frequently asked questions
When does Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces start?
Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces (WNBA) starts at 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 1, 2026 at Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas.
What total does the EdgeGoat model project for Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces?
The model projects about 181.1 combined points.
Who does the model favor in Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces?
The model favors Las Vegas Aces by about 4 points.
How many model edges are there for Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces?
The model currently finds 21 lines priced below its own probability. The largest: A'ja Wilson under 28.5 pts (−115): model 71.6% vs book 53.5%, an edge of +18.1%. Edges are statements about prices, not guarantees about results.
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Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — an edge describes a price, not a result. EdgeGoat does not accept wagers. In Florida, sports betting is offered by Hard Rock Bet (Hard Rock Digital, a separate company).